Coronavirus Pandemic | A Lung Doctor's PREDICTION about COVID-19
- Published on: 2/16/2020
- Coronavirus Pandemic | A Lung Doctor's PREDICTION about COVID-19
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The Coronavirus aka COVID-19 is no longer a problem for China. It's a problem for the whole world. It could become a global pandemic.
How much will this Coronavirus spread going forward?
The official answer is only time will tell. But in this video, I'm going to give you my prediction about what is going to happen with the coronavirus aka COVID-19.
As of right now, there are only 14 confirmed cases in the United States but unfortunately, it looks like there's going to be a wave of infection coming in the USA and In other countries as well.
I'm not the only doctor who thinks like this. Dr. Nancy Missoni, a director of the CDC's National Center for immunization and respiratory diseases expects it too.
We are likely to see community spread in the USA or in other countries, this will trigger a change in our response strategy, she says.
Dr. Tom Frieden the former director of the CDC, also wrote an article in the Journal of American Medical Association on how fiercely it's spread in the Chinese hospital health care workers and other patients in the hospital.
Keep in mind, the reported numbers from China are being accused of censoring critical data about the coronavirus which the World Health Organization now calls a grave threat to the world.
According to scientists writing for The Lancet medical journal, Chinese authorities had preliminary information on the COVID-19 for more than two weeks before it was officially released. One citizen journalist documenting the outbreak in Wuhan has reportedly been arrested. Another has just disappeared.
So you know the numbers in China are really higher than what's being reported.
The numbers are also underreported because it's actually hard to test everyone due to limited resources like testing kits etc. They even started making the diagnosis based on symptoms and scan results more.
When I am making this video, the number of confirmed cases is sixty thousand three hundred sixty-three in the world, the vast majority mainly in China, fourteen are in the United States.
The total number of deaths is 1370 (Globally). So this data is based on numbers coming from the World Health Organization, The CDC, and others.
It's likely only a matter of time before the spread occurs from someone who hasn't been directly connected to Wuhan or directly connected to someone who has a confirmed case of Coronavirus. In fact, we already have evidence that it's spreading in people without even having symptoms.
So here is my prediction, unfortunately, a certain percentage of the population will get hit with this wave of COVID-19. Fortunately, most people who get infected will only have cold or flu-like symptoms. Only a tiny fraction of infected patients will end up with pneumonia. Only a small fraction of those pneumonia patients will end up with an ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome).
Not every COVID-19 patient with an ARDS is guaranteed to die but they have a high likelihood of dying.
But what can we do to make sure that the ratio of death is as low as possible?
In my opinion, there are 4 main factors,
1. Implement infection control measures, so this includes isolating infected patients using personal protective equipment when necessary hand-washing, etc.
2. Early recognition of symptoms. Recognizing fever, runny nose, sore throat, cough, body aches, etc.
3. Early diagnosis, I realize right now the CDC has certain criteria for whom to test. Which is a person with symptoms in someone, who has recently been to the Wuhan area, or who's someone who's been in close contact with a confirmed case?
But at some point will cross that threshold, where we'll have to broaden the criteria of who we can test because some people will get the coronavirus via secondhand exposure diagnosis is based on symptoms travel and exposure history.
4. Early antiviral treatment. Here, Compassionate use of the new antiviral drug Remdesivir. In order to get this drug, doctors have to apply for it. This is because it hasn't done the clinical trial yet. This drug may only be available in limited amounts. Actually, update as of today, it's now being mass-produced in China, as well as the United States pharmaceutical company Gilead working to produce it. Initially, we have to be very selective about who gets it. We want to reserve it for patients who are most likely to benefit from it. But we just don't know how safe it is? So we're not going to give it to people who only have a mild illness but then again given to someone who is critically ill.
Dr. Mike Hansen, MD
Internal Medicine | Pulmonary Disease | Critical Care Medicine
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